And But for the Sky There Are No Fences Facin'

To document just how far out of calibration at least my localized coordinate system is, I found my bank serenading me today with "Mr. Tambourine Man" - in the classic version. I have heard muzaks, covers by various pop singers, and possibly even the Byrds chart-topper, typically in elevators and neutral settings where someone with slightly rebellious anti-authoritarian tendencies might briefly be tolerated. This was different. I believe the security guard I shared my surprise with may have briefly twinkled (or possibly that was just reaction to a tinkle running down leg).

I rarely watch these debate things - there is an S/M aspect to them for sure (and can barely bring myself to do so - though I admit I have left work early for these two). There are a number of issues that feed into my general avoidance of debates - historical disappointment at the performances and annoyance that what I saw as victories for my candidate seemed to accomplish little, soiling of previous idealistic view of candidate, etc.

As a result of prior negative debate experiences, I am prone to distrust my instincts while the dust is still clearing. But, getting a little outside my normal shell, here's my first impression, admittedly shaded by a little inevitable net-work. Given the reports on her Gibson and Couric interviews, Palin's "performance" was pretty impressive. I did not observe any of the completely nonsensical jabberwockian statements that seemed to come naturally to her under calmer interview conditions. And she was able to generally avoid nastiness in the form of digs, sarcasm, Marcel-Marceau-like facial contortions, and truly flagrant material.

But some truth-shading, much more distorting the truth, and not a little full lying (she's still earning her republican stripes, of course), not to mention being wholly unresponsive to more than a few questions (e.g., what's your real Achille's heal? how about details on plan for Iraq?), those were the main repertoire.

I have to give Biden at least equal marks for self-control and equanimity. He didn't have nearly as much recent bad behavior to avoid replicating, nor, somewhat remarkably given his much longer presence on the Big Stage, anywhere near as much downside to worry about. But he seemed to me genteel throughout, classy, statesmanlike, and, dare-I-say occasionally almost chivalrous in flashing those gorgeous teeth in a smile in response to gibes when either of his opponents would have been snearing, smirking, or talking to themselves.

And, on content, it was not the slam-dunk I had hoped for either, but Biden was clearly actually willing to get down in the weeds a bit in terms of details, while Palin was obviously on a largely-content-free platitude picnic.

Conclusion? She reassured those already behind her and may have made limited inroads with a few fence-sitters. Overall, decision to Biden.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days. Too late to catch it now, but I saw hint that Olbermann might have a response tonight.

I'm going to turn first to Christy Hardin Smith, reliable mainstay at Firedoglake, a personal favorite bookmarked site. Like her, I found the Biden family moment, to me just the slightest of quavers in his delivery, quite touching:

This moment, when Joe Biden talked about being a single parent unsure whether his sons would make it after his wife and daughter were tragically killed in a car accident?

Most real thing I've seen in politics in a long, long time.

When Biden was speaking about the folks he grew up with in Scranton and Wilmington -- their fear about how to pay for the heat in the winter, and groceries, and medical bills? You could feel the empathy pouring out of the television.

He wants to help those folks. They are his neighbors, whether they live next door or across the continent.

Sarah Palin has clearly been on camera enough to hit her marks, and deliver her rote, frenzied lines for that closing speech or to launch into yet another hyperactive filibuster. I give her credit for having a great camera presence, but so much of it felt scripted, manic and manufactured -- down to the newly caramelized color of her highlights that they toned down with a color rinse from the usual brassier version for the stage lighting tonight.

Especially the moment where she was griping about corporations taking advantage of folks, while she's spent the last five weeks chumming around with corporate lobbyist cronies of John McCain's. (What ya do, not what ya say, you betcha! *wink*)

Frankly, I have had enough of a manufactured false front in the last eight years, haven't you? I don't want to have a beer with my leaders. I want them to do their jobs, and care enough to do them well.

Joe Biden? He was real. He spoke from real experience, from his heart and his gut. He cared about the subjects, whether it was protecting women from violence or Afghanistan or home heating bills for the poor. And I loved him for it tonight.

Looks like CBS' undecideds poll agrees: Biden -- 46%, Palin 21%. Nate has more.

I enjoyed this pre-debate posting by dday at Hallabaloo. I include it mostly for refreshing candor by press as to their obsessive need to induce a contest and friction, i.e., not letting anyone get too far ahead. Right now that is an instinct we should be very wary of. The "Mo" is clearly with us:

I don't think Sarah Palin intentionally flubbed her pre-debate interviews to lower expectations as much as possible, but that has been the practical effect. And the Obama campaign is trying to dial it back and restore her reputation as an excellent debater, to balance things out.

After repeatedly calling Palin first "an extremely good debater," then a "great" one, at the end he ramped it up to "Gov. Palin is one of the best debaters in American politics," at which point the press gaggle interrupted him with its laughter.

"No, she is! Her 2006 debate, she knew where she wanted to take every question, and so I think she'll be relentlessly on message tonight..."

The interviews were conducted on the turf of the interviewer. The debate will be on Palin's turf. It's quite structured, with little time for any back-and-forth between the candidates, so there's not much chance of going off the prepared script, which will be filled with the type of zingers she delivered very well in St. Paul. And the McCain campaign has seemed to figure out that Palin's only way through this is to attack her opponent and take the focus off of her positions and knowledge and onto Biden's.

But more than all of this, Atrios described what is most likely to come out of tonight, and certainly what I'll be looking for:

I'm guessing they twist something - anything - Biden says into being an attack on Palin's children/family somehow.Get ready!

The Wahmbulance is coming to town.

[That may have been the strategery (sory - can't help myself), but Joe must have seen their script - I think it will be quite a stretch to tag him with anything like this. Great job, Joe!}

This doesn't have to be picked up by the immediate snap polls - Democrats seem to have an advantage on those - but afterwards, when it'll be relentlessly hyped by Drudge and Rush and the noise machine. Maybe Lynne Cheney will reprise her role and call Joe Biden "a baaaad man!"

The media is telegraphing this one. They are ready for any slight - Tweety and Kit Seelye obsessed over whether Biden will help Palin with her chair despite the fact that they'll be at podiums. And the culture of victimhood and self-pity on the right will certainly make it so that their ears will be pricked for anything they can twist into an insult. I'm fully expecting it.

And though the media of late has been calling the Republicans on their B.S. and has really internalized the plain truth that McCain has run a dirty, dishonest and dishonorable campaign, this race is getting a bit out of hand, maybe too much for their tastes:

Much of the news media is reporting that Barack Obama is pulling away from John McCain ... and suggesting that, because of low expectations, Sarah Palin need only get through tonight's debate without accidentally endorsing Obama in order to be successful. Put the two together, and it's hard to avoid the suspicion that the media is more than ready to push a McCain-Palin "comeback" narrative -- and, consciously or not, to help that comeback along.

Don't believe that kind of thing happens? Here's Brian Williams and Howard Fineman, in a September 21, 2000 exchange:

HOWARD FINEMAN: The media pendulum swings, as you were pointing out before, Brian. Bill Clinton can resurface in this campaign in a way that might not necessarily help Al Gore. And Al Gore himself has a tendency to begin - when he's ahead especially I think - talking down to the country like he's the kindergarten teacher talking to the class. I think all those factors are at play right now as Bush has really had probably the best week he's had since his convention speech. And Gore has had his worst.

BRIAN WILLIAMS: Howard, I don't know of any kind of conspiratorial trilateral commission-like council meetings in the news media. But you bring up an interesting point. And boy, it does seem true over the years that the news media almost reserve the right to build up and tear down and change their minds and like an underdog. What's that about?

HOWARD FINEMAN: Well, what it's about is the relentless search for news and the relentless search for friction in the story. I don't think the media was going to allow just by its nature the next seven weeks and the last seven or eight weeks of the campaign to be all about Al Gore's relentless triumphant march to the presidency.

We want a race I suppose. If we have a bias of any kind, it's that we like to see a contest, and we like to see it down the end if we can. And I think that's partly the psychology at play here.

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I was enchanted to hear that Ralph Stanley endorsed and offered recording OBO Obama. This might even be news of interest in Weiser, ID, Reno, NV, Lubbock, TX, and Washtucna, WA! Which is to say, this is the Ralph Stanley, he of bluegrass fame (courtesy DKos).

["Take me on a trip upon your magic swirlin' ship"]

I see this was diaried a few days back, but no one took notice. Now TPM has the audio and I can't believe what an amazing endorsement Obama has received. Ralph Stanley, the 81-year old legend of bluegrass music, should be a McCain voter, and if not that, should at least be swayed by Palin. He is a deeply Christian man who has spent his entire life in rural, conservative SW Virginia. His music is, to paraphrase the good Governor, as six-pack as you can get. He signs about heartache, loss, God, fooling around, and all the stuff that makes life worth living.

I was lucky enough to catch him and his band (now led by his son, who is also an accomplished musician) in a tiny town in West Virginia nearly a decade ago. No concert I've seen approached the beauty of a Ralph Stanley show in a tiny community center before about 50 people. If he comes through your town, definitely check him out.

Enough digression. Here's his endorsement of Obama, which is running on radio in SW Virginia: http://e1.video.blip.tv/...

I don't know how to embed audio, so please forgive me. Anyhoo, if Virginia is close now, this should help Obama immensely. Ralph comes off as truly behind Obama, and puts in such a way you'd be a fool not to vote for him. Bravo!

Update: Here's part of the transcript, according to our friends at TPM...

"Howdy, friends. This is Ralph Stanley, and I think I know a little something about the families around here," the spot runs.

"Barack'll cut taxes for everyday folks -- not big business -- so you'll have a little more money in your pocket at the end of the year," he continues. "I also know Barack is a good man. A father and devoted husband, he values personal responsibility and family first."

And, wrapping up, ponder this post at Down With Tyranny regarding some significant additional signs of the lack of attention to the elephant-mortar. Yee-haw!

[Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free, silhouetted by the sea]

This morning when asked why Obama is gaining momentum everywhere in the country while his own polling numbers are tumbling, McCain sputtered and groused to his buddies at Fox that "life is unfair." With support from voters solidifying around Obama's calm, measured approach-- and rejecting the McCain campaign's erratic and hysterical reactions to everything-- the battlegrounds for November have been shifting into "safe" Republican states like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Florida. In fact, Florida Republicans are panicking. So are congressional candidates tied to McCain.

Recall that McCain has an unbroken record this year when it comes to coattails: three contested special elections (all in heavily Republican districts, "safe" seats in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi) were won by Democrats when McCain's efforts on behalf of Republicans backfired badly. Polling news from around the country is looking gloomier and gloomier for the Republicans, even in areas they thought were safe for them. The NRSC has given up on races in New Mexico and Virginia where they once thought they could hold onto seats of retiring Republicans. This morning's Washington Post declared that the GOP's gradual decline in Virginia has turned into a free fall (And, by the way, this isn't just happening in the DC suburbs, as this Kos diarist-- click on the link-- makes clear when he explains the importance of bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley's endorsement of Obama.)

Long-serving members of Congress and the state legislatures are not only leaving office but also blasting their party on the way out. Just a few years after running his party's national congressional campaign effort, Rep. Tom Davis of Fairfax County is leaving Congress embittered by the Republicans' hard-right positions and frustrated that there appears to be no home for moderates who might appeal to suburban voters.

Virginia's GOP "gave me the middle finger," Davis said after party leaders maneuvered to hand its nomination for the retiring John Warner's U.S. Senate seat to former governor Jim Gilmore, rather than allow a primary between the hard-right Gilmore and the moderate Davis. "Anybody who compromises, you go back to your party base and you're an apostate. You're squishy. You're weak."

Two of Virginia's longest-serving GOP leaders, Sen. John Chichester of Stafford County and Del. Vince Callahan of Fairfax, left the legislature this year with harsh words for their party-- and both have endorsed Democrat Mark Warner in this fall's Senate race."

I'm extremely distressed by the path it's taking," Callahan told me of the GOP in Virginia. "It could end up being a minority debating society. We can't be a party about immigrant-bashing or gay-bashing or any other bashing. We should be a party of fiscal responsibility, which is how I got into it."

Even worse was some of the startling congressional polling news that came in from around the country. Maybe they're hoping Mooselini will turn this around for them tonight, but it looks like the Republican brand is as toxic as astute prognosticators have been saying it was. Let's start in Texas, where Blue America-endorsee Larry Joe Doherty has been in an under the radar struggle with another lockstep, rubber stamp Bush millionaire, Michael McCaul, whose father-in-law, the Clear Channel CEO, bought him the seat after DeLay had the district gerrymandered to be safe for a garden variety Republican. That same district is no longer viewed as safe. New polling data shows him rapidly closing the gap with McCaul. Yes, Texas.

And look at North Carolina. In fact, more specifically, look at NC-08 in the south-central part of the state that became near and dear to many activists from all over America in 2006 when a stalwart working families supporter, Larry Kissell, came within 324 votes of dislodging weak and useless Bush rubber stamp Robin Hayes. New polling suggests that this year will not be close. A new Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner poll conducted September 28-29 shows Larry Kissell leading Representative Robin Hayes by 11 points, 54- 43%. Obama is also ahead of McCain by roughly the same margin in NC-08 and Democratic Senate Candidate Kay Hagan is leading Elizabeth Dole by 14 points (55%-41%). 8th District voters believe that Larry will do a better job on the economy than Hayes, who supported the job-destroying CAFTA bill, and that Kissell is more likely to stand up for North Carolina's workers.

Even in red, red Idaho, the Democratic house candidate Walt Minnick has pulled ahead of Republican far right extremist Bill Sali, 44-38%! And one of the sweetest polls of all came out of southern Ohio this morning where Vic Wulsin's momentum has caught up with rubber stamp incumbent Mean Jean Schmidt in OH-02. Momentum Analysis calls the race a dead heat with 16% of the voters still undecided. Vic's spokesperson, Kevin Franck, points out that the poll found that 85% of voters are worried that the economic crisis on Wall Street puts their families at risk.

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[Hey Mr. Tambourine Man, play a song for me, I'm not sleepy and there ain't no place I'm goin' to . . .]