Monday, September 24, 2012

How to Contain October Surprises from Afar?

I don't always agree with him in all respects, but I rarely regret making time for Tom Engelhardt's posts.  He's smart and savvy and obviously devotes himself to high-quality writing.

I winced at his "Obama Against the World" title for this piece, but what do I know.

I am quoting at greater length than I would prefer both because the words resonate so well and because I hope to convert others to bookmark TE.

Since this is my version of an election piece, I plan to get the usual stuff out of the way fast.

So yes, the smartest political odds-givers around believe President Obama has a distinct edge over Mitt Romney coming out of the conventions, the Senate is trending Democratic, and who knows about the House.  In fact, it almost seems as if the Republicans put forward the only man in America incapable of defeating an economically wounded and deeply vulnerable president (other than, of course, the roster of candidates he ran against for the nomination).

In every way that they can control, the Obama people have simply been smarter.  Take those conventions: in each of them, the presidential candidate was introduced by a well-known figure who went on stage and ad-libbed.  One was an 82-year-old guy talking to an empty chair (and I still thought he was the best thing the Republicans had to offer, including his shout-out about withdrawing all our troops from Afghanistan) and the other was... well, Bill Clinton.

It wasn’t even a contest.  As for the upcoming debates, if you think Romney can outduel Obama without wandering in among the thorns, I have a Nigerian prince I'd like to introduce you to.  In other words, it should really all be over except for the usual shouting and the gazillions of dollars of attack ads that will turn swing-state TV screens into a mind-numbing blur of lies. Even there, however, some Super PAC and dark-money types may evidently be starting to consider shifting funds from beating up on Obama to beating up on Democratic senatorial candidates.  It's a sign that the moneybags of the Republican right fear the Romney campaign is a rerun of McCain World and the candidate is a Bain Capital version of John Kerry wind-surfing.  After all, Romney seems almost incapable of opening his mouth without letting out a howler, his staff is in a state of civil war, and Republican candidates elsewhere are leaping from the ditched bandwagon, as are even conservative pundits.

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 I wish I could be anywhere near that breezy about the incumbent's chances and the opposition's never-fail incompetence.  Yes, I am optimistic.  But I can't not brood over voter suppression, easily-corrupted electronic voting machines manufactured by companies known for their republican ownership and alliance, and the opportunity for vast sums of money to poison the election.  It's terrific that the signals are going our way and the opposition seems to be still trying to figure out a strategy for not losing at Tiddley-winks.  But I am not doing cocky by any means.

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The liberal hit on Obama has been that the man won’t fight for what he believes in.  The next 43 days will put the lie to that.  He’s ready to fight fiercely for his job by doing his damnedest to tamp down any possible embarrassments, any potential October surprises -- and he’s enlisted the U.S. government lock, stock, and State Department in that campaign. So if you want a little horse-race entertainment for the next six weeks, skip the Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia polls, don’t worry about the results of the coming debates, or the court tests on restrictive new voting laws.  After all, there’s going to be no better show in town than the acrobatic contortions of the Obama crew as they work to keep global disaster off the menu until November 7th.

It should be a lesson in what a declining superpower can (or can’t) still do: a shining tale of great power management and luck or a sobering parable of what is no longer within the grasp of such a power on this planet of ours.

In the meantime, it’s Obama against the world and the horse-race question is: Will he make it to November 7th and a second term?  Think of that as Obama’s problem.

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And Engelhardt suggests there's even more than that to worry about in the aftermath of the election.  Yikes!